NBA ROCK

The big man and what he means for the West

Amidst the madness that usually ensues in March with the NCAA tournament, is the maddening jostling for position in the Western Conference playoff race. And nothing better characterizes the conference’s stretch run more than the return of the Big Man.

In what is undoubtedly the most hotly contested playoff race in the NBA in some time, the conference-wide additions of big men to their rosters is further indication of the changing times; more specifically, it harkens back to the days of the dominant big man. The Western Conference, always known for its dominant big men, had moved away from the formula that had characterized it for so long with the movements in Golden State and Denver, up till recently Phoenix and LA, and to, an extent, Dallas… opting for fast paced transition basketball versus running the half court offense through the post.

However, when the Lakers added Pau Gasol to their roster and Phoenix responded with trading away Suns mainstay Shawn Marion for Shaq, it was clear the big man was back to stay in the West. Even the Warriors tried to jump in on the fun by signing Chris Webber to help in the paint and on the glass (though, thus far, a failed experiment).

Now suddenly the Spurs don’t have the size advantage they’ve always had over their opponents. The Lakers are going to be able to trot out, once healthy, an explosive, effective Andrew Bynum at center and uber-talented Pau Gasol at power forward. With Lamar Odom now at his natural small forward position, the Lakers are the longest team in the NBA with a front court that is nearly as terrifying as their backcourt and maybe more so. Teams like the Warriors and Nuggets would be pressed to resort to shooting and will have to do so at a very high level in order to hang. Fortunate for both teams, they shoot the ball extremely well. Last year when the Warriors took on the Jazz (not a particularly big team but simply bigger than Golden State was), it was a classic contrast of styles: the Jazz consistently outrebounded the Warriors and the Warriors jacked up more than twice as many three point attempts.

In the end size won and the West has taken the hint. Every team in the top 8 with a couple of exceptions has a very good big man somewhere in the mix. Let’s break it down by today’s current standings from top to bottom with an emphasis on the big man theme:

1. The Lakers currently sit atop the picture. They are the same in the loss column as the Hornets below them but are there without a full squad. I doubt anybody isn’t expecting the Lakers to look considerably more terrifying once Andrew Bynum is incorporated into the system. That would move Pau Gasol to the power forward position and the Lakers will be much better. Really. They have a relatively favorable schedule down the stretch and are primed to finish the season at #1.
2. The Hornets are only a game back of the Lakers but boast one of the more underrated front courts in the NBA. Sure, CP3 is most of the reason the Big Easy is loving NBA basketball right now but when you have a center in Tyson Chandler who is averaging a solid double double and a power forward in David West who is almost averaging 20-10 (fraction of a point and a rebound off the distinction at 19.8 ppg and 9.2 rpg), there is little doubt that the Hornets have a solid presence in the paint. They are the dark horse in the conference because despite their record, I don’t think anybody is giving them the love they deserve. They can beat anybody in the 8 and their only detractor is their lack of experience. So far, they’ve shown no indications of folding under pressure.
3. The Rockets are probably the most controversial team in the top 8 right now. In a matter of a week, they saw their 22 game win streak (that generated all sorts of hype ranging from legit contender to insignificant pretender) end and then pulled out a miraculous win against Golden State. What’s to make of it? Are they contenders? Certainly; after all, they have a great SG in Tracy McGrady and they play the brand of Team Basketball that makes any fan of the game whimper. However, I’m discussing the big man in the playoff picture as I firmly believe that this is where the playoffs are going to be won and that is where Houston will fall. The loss of Yao Ming is far more significant than the illusion of their win streak being sustained through the injury makes them out to appear. The fact is, Luis Scola and Carl Landry are not in a position to realistically compete with the big men of the other western conference teams in playoff scenarios.



4. The Utah Jazz don’t have any dominant big guy outside of Boozer and he was nullified the other night when the Lakers went INTO Salt Lake City and beat the Jazz without Bynum or Gasol. With Rohny Turiaf and Vladimir Radmanovic, they were able to control the paint. How can the Jazz, who I think rely too much on the play of Deron Williams, defeat the Bigs of the West? I don’t think they can.
5. The Suns are definitely contenders. Now that Stoudemire has moved over into the 4 spot and Shaq is finally started to become grafted to the Phoenix Machine, the Suns have a serious inside presence AND more importantly, the ability to change their entire makeup by sitting Shaq and running as fast if not faster than anybody in the league. Without any doubts, the Suns, even at the 5 spot, are amidst the very most serious contenders.
6. The Spurs. As long as they have Duncan and Manu, they will always be contenders. Also, the previous year’s champs are champs until knocked off and the Spurs know how to play with that confidence. The major move at the deadline for the Spurs was the signing of Kurt Thomas. Thomas is a legitimate inside presence who has a long history of success in defending elite bigs and alongside Duncan, should prove to be a hit in San Antonio. The Spurs are not concerned about his scoring (although he can do that well enough) as they have super studs Duncan, Ginobili and Parker. Still, the fact that San Antonio can throw Duncan, Thomas, Horry, Elson and Oberto at you is significant. Definitely a team to be feared come playoffs.
7. The Mavericks are an interesting scenario. If the playoffs were to start today, they’d matchup with New Orleans whom they’re 1-2 so far against. Dallas has not looked good since the Kidd deal, as they’ve lost to New Orleans, San Antonio, LA, Utah, Houston, LA again, and then Boston. That doesn’t look good. All those teams are big inside or play excellent defense. The Mavericks’ best hopes of winning a series and moving on is tryin to catch San Antonio and face Houston in the first round. Otherwise, it doesn’t look too good for the Big D.
8. The Warriors. Ah yes. My good ol’ Warriors. I’ll admit, I’m not too thrilled about our prospects in this big man tilted conference. The Warriors are a shooting team and as such are susceptible to long stretches of cold shooting that can put them back where they can’t recover and catch up. The move to sign Chris Webber had the right idea… a veteran presence to guide the younger players and a big to grab boards and play a presence in the paint. Unfortunately, this was a few years late as C-Webb is already well over the hill and has shown it in limited minutes. Brandan Wright, the highly touted rookie they snagged last year, can help and so can Andris Biedrins but Don Nelson’s team is a running team and they’re the best at it. Because of that, there is an exception to the rule that I’ve been using throughout the article and while it may come across as a fan’s bias, bear with me. The Warriors are a run n gun team by design. The theory is simple. Shoot, shoot, shoot, shoot… and eventually, the numbers even out. The same cannot be said about Dallas or Houston or the Jazz and as a result, the Warriors might have the best chance of any of the “bottom 4” to move forward in the playoffs.

Still, I don’t feel the Warriors are going to be able to come out of the pack any more than I think the Mavericks will. Truth is, this conference is heavy with big guys and the top teams, LA, Phoenix, New Orleans and San Antonio have all the edge in that department. Either way, this will be certainly the best and most insanely competitive playoffs in a long time. This is by far my favorite time of the year. March Madness just to be followed up by the NBA playoffs.

Who can ask for more?

Hard to believe that 2 seasons ago the Miami Heat were world champs, isn’t it? Fast forward 2 seasons later and they’ve claimed the worst record in the NBA. You can debate it either way, but I’m going to say that trading Shaq away for Shawn Marion was a good move for the Heat. Marion is, after all, putting up better numbers for the Heat than he did Phoenix. This is understandable since the Heat doesn’t have the star power that the Suns have.

I think we’re going to see the Heat making some moves for the long-term. I think we’re going to see said moves happen sooner rather than later. I say this because Dwayne Wade can opt out of his contract after the 2009-2010 season. This gives the Miami Heat 2 years to put key players in place around Dwayne Wade. If Pat Riley has anything to do with putting players in place, I’ll put money on him bringing in a center. It’s his style — a center-oriented offense. On paper it sounds great, too; your star center gets doubled and he kicks it out to an open man resulting in a nothing but net splash. Don’t be surprised if Riley pursues Eddy Curry. Otherwise, it’s slim-pickings for Pat Riley and his power-in-the-post mentality:

• Emeka Okafor (restricted free agent)
• Jamaal Magloire (unrestricted free agent)

Maybe 2008 won’t the year the Heat find a new big man via free agency. All the more reason to expect a trade to swing Eddy Curry Miami’s way. It wouldn’t be a bad deal for the Knicks, either. A 17-39 record paired with a salary cap nightmare = time to rebuild.