NBA ROCK

 

 

Here’s a quick run-down before the beginning of the 1^st round of what should be the most exciting NBA postseason in recent memory.

 

The West

I recently characterized the Western Conference by the predominance of the Dominant Big men of the elite teams. Just on a topical level, we’ve seen how teams like the Nuggets barely get in and teams like the Warriors don’t even get in. Not so surprisingly, neither team has significant inside presence no matter how much I like Camby and Biedrins. The West will be won in the paint. And we have some intriguing first round matchups that’ll bring that to light.

 

1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. 8 Denver Nuggets

I was hoping for a California series… the Warriors and Lakers play intense playoff basketball every time they meet up and an actual playoff series between them would have been epic. However, the Lakers own the Nuggets (they swept the season series) and with Pau Gasol, they are going to punish the Nuggets in the paint. Of course having the best player in the NBA, Kobe Bryant, doesn’t hurt. The Lakers are possibly the most balanced team in the West and that is even without Andrew Bynum. This series might go to 6 games but it’ll probably be over in 5.

Lakers in 5

 

2 New Orleans Hornets vs. 7 Dallas Mavericks

This is going to be a great matchup. The final game of the season was a preview of sorts and the Mavericks looked good. However, that game was essentially meaningless to the Hornets who were already locked into their spot and the Mavs were still shooting to stay in the 7^th spot. That said, the game was an aberration. The Mavericks have yet to get totally acclimated to Kidd’s presence on the team. It is easy for a casual observer to look at box scores and watch stretches of Maverick games and see that he puts up some decent points, great assist numbers and runs the offense. However, there is still, in spite of their vastly improved play in the last couple of weeks, a certain lack of chemistry that is visible. Against a team like the Hornets who have CP3 who has a full fledged chemistry with his team and two big dominating big guys like David West and Tyson Chandler who can put up points and grab boards, the Hornets have a lot of ways to hurt you… in the short game and the long game. This series will likely go 6 games… but the Hornets will prevail.

Hornets in 6

 

3 San Antonio Spurs vs. 6 Phoenix Suns

Wow; here’s a rematch of a series that turned real ugly last year. We all remember when Steve Nash was bodychecked into the courtside panels by Robert Horry and then the ensuing Technical Fouls and eventual suspension to Amare Stoudemire for walking too far outside of an imaginery boundary. Amidst the crazy west, we have these same two excellent basketball teams back together for a round 1 slugfest. The particulars: The Suns now trot out the Big Cactus and you better believe that he’ll make a significant contribution to the series which was already close last year. The Spurs ultimately have the edge because a) they’re the defending champs and b) have been here a million times in the last decade. The Suns are far better now than they were a year ago, though – Shaq allows them to play two different teams very efficiently. They can slow it down and match Duncan and the Spurs or speed it up and outrun the Spurs if need be. This one is a little harder to call but I’m going to go with the monumental upset. I am not sold on San Antonio this year… they made a nice push in the final months of the season but they’ve looked vulnerable at times and the Suns, outside of the initial acclimation with Shaq, have looked more dangerous and more consistent. This one goes the distance.

Suns in 7

 

4 Houston Rockets vs. 5 Utah Jazz

Home court advantage here is GROSSLY significant. Why? The Jazz are one of the NBA’s best teams when in Salt Lake City… however, outside of Utah, they are no better than the Charlotte Bobcats. Last year’s series went the distance before the Jazz outlasted a Rockets team that couldn’t muster anything outside of T Mac and Yao… a significant difference in this year’s team. The Jazz are almost unbeatable in Utah so Houston will have to take advantage of it’s home court in order to win this series. Remember, last year, the home team won every game except for game 7 when Utah beat the Rockets in Houston. This year, Utah will have to do it again. As much as the 22 game win streak by the Rockets was impressive, the absence of Yao Ming will prove to be costly as the Jazz are ruthless on the boards. Guess what? Repeat.

Jazz in 7

 

 

 

The East

So much is made of the dichotomy between the conferences. However, I’d hope that every team in the West is smartly terrified of playing the Celtics or the Pistons, who not only dominated the shit out of their own conference but also of the West. The Magic are the third best team of the conference before the rest of the field drops off dramatically. Still, that does not go to say that the East playoffs will not be exciting in and of themselves… moving on…

 

1 Boston Celtics vs. 8 Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are young and exciting. Mike Bibby came in and instantly turned this young team into a solid, effective team now that it has veteran playmaking to lead it. However, the ass wooping they’re likely to endure at the hands of the Green Machine is part of the growing pains and will make this Hawks team, as long as they stay together and focused, a much better team next year. Unfortunately for them, this year, they will have to find a way to contend, not only with the scoring of the Big Three but also, with the best Defense in the NBA… role guys like Rondo, Perkins, Big Baby, and Powe make this the best all around team in the NBA. No doubt.

Celtics in 4

 

2 Detroit Pistons vs. 7 Philadelphia 76ers

The Pistons are the second best team in the conference, without any doubts. The Sixers, since the all star break have been nearly the 3^rd best team in the conference so don’t bet on a sweep because Andre Miller has probably been the best PG in the East this season, Andre Iguodala is one of the best scorers in the NBA and the Sixers are exciting and dangerous. Still, the Pistons are the prototype for Postseason consistency and will come out on top in this one. I’m inclined to give Chauncey and company a solid 4 games to 1 prediction but something about Philly tells me they might stretch a second one out at some point in the series.

Pistons in 6

 

3 Orlando Magic vs. 6 Toronto Raptors

The Magic are the third best team in the East and are unlikely to fall to the Raptors who’ll need Bargnani to step it up and play like the 1^st overall pick that they anticipated him to be. As a .500 team, the Raptors are deceptively bound to win as likely as they are bound to lose… a dangerous team. However, the rebounding edge certainly will go to Orlando and usually the team that plays harder on the boards wins. Additionally, Howard, Turkoglu and Lewis are all very good scorers and the team as a whole is deep and well balanced. The Magic are probably going to move on. The question is in how many games. My guess:

Magic in 5

 

4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5 Washington Wizards

Three years in a row now these two run into each other in the 1^st round. King James and co. have had the last laugh the first two times… but this year, a few differences may switch the result. The key difference here is that LeBron has a different supporting cast with Wally Szcerbiak, Ben Wallace and Joe Smith on board instead of Drew Gooden and Larry Hughes. Still, this has always been about LeBron vs. Agent 0 and if that is the case, then the edge definitely goes to King James… on account of him being the far better player and the healthier of the two. Still, Arenas can have a significant influence on the outcome regardless on a team that still stuck around in the playoff race despite not having their star player for the entire season. With a developed supporting cast of Deshawn Stevenson, Nick Young, and Brendan Haywood, the big three of Arenas, Jamison and Butler look a little more dangerous than last year. Still. King James won’t have a first round exit.

Cavs in 7

The big man and what he means for the West

Amidst the madness that usually ensues in March with the NCAA tournament, is the maddening jostling for position in the Western Conference playoff race. And nothing better characterizes the conference’s stretch run more than the return of the Big Man.

In what is undoubtedly the most hotly contested playoff race in the NBA in some time, the conference-wide additions of big men to their rosters is further indication of the changing times; more specifically, it harkens back to the days of the dominant big man. The Western Conference, always known for its dominant big men, had moved away from the formula that had characterized it for so long with the movements in Golden State and Denver, up till recently Phoenix and LA, and to, an extent, Dallas… opting for fast paced transition basketball versus running the half court offense through the post.

However, when the Lakers added Pau Gasol to their roster and Phoenix responded with trading away Suns mainstay Shawn Marion for Shaq, it was clear the big man was back to stay in the West. Even the Warriors tried to jump in on the fun by signing Chris Webber to help in the paint and on the glass (though, thus far, a failed experiment).

Now suddenly the Spurs don’t have the size advantage they’ve always had over their opponents. The Lakers are going to be able to trot out, once healthy, an explosive, effective Andrew Bynum at center and uber-talented Pau Gasol at power forward. With Lamar Odom now at his natural small forward position, the Lakers are the longest team in the NBA with a front court that is nearly as terrifying as their backcourt and maybe more so. Teams like the Warriors and Nuggets would be pressed to resort to shooting and will have to do so at a very high level in order to hang. Fortunate for both teams, they shoot the ball extremely well. Last year when the Warriors took on the Jazz (not a particularly big team but simply bigger than Golden State was), it was a classic contrast of styles: the Jazz consistently outrebounded the Warriors and the Warriors jacked up more than twice as many three point attempts.

In the end size won and the West has taken the hint. Every team in the top 8 with a couple of exceptions has a very good big man somewhere in the mix. Let’s break it down by today’s current standings from top to bottom with an emphasis on the big man theme:

1. The Lakers currently sit atop the picture. They are the same in the loss column as the Hornets below them but are there without a full squad. I doubt anybody isn’t expecting the Lakers to look considerably more terrifying once Andrew Bynum is incorporated into the system. That would move Pau Gasol to the power forward position and the Lakers will be much better. Really. They have a relatively favorable schedule down the stretch and are primed to finish the season at #1.
2. The Hornets are only a game back of the Lakers but boast one of the more underrated front courts in the NBA. Sure, CP3 is most of the reason the Big Easy is loving NBA basketball right now but when you have a center in Tyson Chandler who is averaging a solid double double and a power forward in David West who is almost averaging 20-10 (fraction of a point and a rebound off the distinction at 19.8 ppg and 9.2 rpg), there is little doubt that the Hornets have a solid presence in the paint. They are the dark horse in the conference because despite their record, I don’t think anybody is giving them the love they deserve. They can beat anybody in the 8 and their only detractor is their lack of experience. So far, they’ve shown no indications of folding under pressure.
3. The Rockets are probably the most controversial team in the top 8 right now. In a matter of a week, they saw their 22 game win streak (that generated all sorts of hype ranging from legit contender to insignificant pretender) end and then pulled out a miraculous win against Golden State. What’s to make of it? Are they contenders? Certainly; after all, they have a great SG in Tracy McGrady and they play the brand of Team Basketball that makes any fan of the game whimper. However, I’m discussing the big man in the playoff picture as I firmly believe that this is where the playoffs are going to be won and that is where Houston will fall. The loss of Yao Ming is far more significant than the illusion of their win streak being sustained through the injury makes them out to appear. The fact is, Luis Scola and Carl Landry are not in a position to realistically compete with the big men of the other western conference teams in playoff scenarios.



4. The Utah Jazz don’t have any dominant big guy outside of Boozer and he was nullified the other night when the Lakers went INTO Salt Lake City and beat the Jazz without Bynum or Gasol. With Rohny Turiaf and Vladimir Radmanovic, they were able to control the paint. How can the Jazz, who I think rely too much on the play of Deron Williams, defeat the Bigs of the West? I don’t think they can.
5. The Suns are definitely contenders. Now that Stoudemire has moved over into the 4 spot and Shaq is finally started to become grafted to the Phoenix Machine, the Suns have a serious inside presence AND more importantly, the ability to change their entire makeup by sitting Shaq and running as fast if not faster than anybody in the league. Without any doubts, the Suns, even at the 5 spot, are amidst the very most serious contenders.
6. The Spurs. As long as they have Duncan and Manu, they will always be contenders. Also, the previous year’s champs are champs until knocked off and the Spurs know how to play with that confidence. The major move at the deadline for the Spurs was the signing of Kurt Thomas. Thomas is a legitimate inside presence who has a long history of success in defending elite bigs and alongside Duncan, should prove to be a hit in San Antonio. The Spurs are not concerned about his scoring (although he can do that well enough) as they have super studs Duncan, Ginobili and Parker. Still, the fact that San Antonio can throw Duncan, Thomas, Horry, Elson and Oberto at you is significant. Definitely a team to be feared come playoffs.
7. The Mavericks are an interesting scenario. If the playoffs were to start today, they’d matchup with New Orleans whom they’re 1-2 so far against. Dallas has not looked good since the Kidd deal, as they’ve lost to New Orleans, San Antonio, LA, Utah, Houston, LA again, and then Boston. That doesn’t look good. All those teams are big inside or play excellent defense. The Mavericks’ best hopes of winning a series and moving on is tryin to catch San Antonio and face Houston in the first round. Otherwise, it doesn’t look too good for the Big D.
8. The Warriors. Ah yes. My good ol’ Warriors. I’ll admit, I’m not too thrilled about our prospects in this big man tilted conference. The Warriors are a shooting team and as such are susceptible to long stretches of cold shooting that can put them back where they can’t recover and catch up. The move to sign Chris Webber had the right idea… a veteran presence to guide the younger players and a big to grab boards and play a presence in the paint. Unfortunately, this was a few years late as C-Webb is already well over the hill and has shown it in limited minutes. Brandan Wright, the highly touted rookie they snagged last year, can help and so can Andris Biedrins but Don Nelson’s team is a running team and they’re the best at it. Because of that, there is an exception to the rule that I’ve been using throughout the article and while it may come across as a fan’s bias, bear with me. The Warriors are a run n gun team by design. The theory is simple. Shoot, shoot, shoot, shoot… and eventually, the numbers even out. The same cannot be said about Dallas or Houston or the Jazz and as a result, the Warriors might have the best chance of any of the “bottom 4” to move forward in the playoffs.

Still, I don’t feel the Warriors are going to be able to come out of the pack any more than I think the Mavericks will. Truth is, this conference is heavy with big guys and the top teams, LA, Phoenix, New Orleans and San Antonio have all the edge in that department. Either way, this will be certainly the best and most insanely competitive playoffs in a long time. This is by far my favorite time of the year. March Madness just to be followed up by the NBA playoffs.

Who can ask for more?

Take a look at the top 8 teams in the West:

1. Lakers
2. Spurs
3. Suns
4. Hornets
5. Mavericks
6. Jazz
7. Warriors
8. Nuggets

I had to double-back when I saw that the Lakers were 1st place. Not to take away from the Lakers’ success or anything, but I didn’t think they were that good. It appears there’s some chemistry happening between the Lakers’ big 3 (The Boston who?) in Los Angeles. A chemistry that’s lead the Lakers to an 8-game winning streak.

Kobe Bryant’s is experience a small shift in his numbers since Gasol has arrived. The bad: PPG (down about 2 PPG) and RPG (down about 1.5 RPG). The good: APG (up nearly 1.0 APG) and FT% (up about 4%). Granted Gasol doesn’t directly affect Kobe’s free throw %, I thought it was an interesting stat change.

Despite averaging around one less RPG, and a couple of other drops in averages in L.A. than in Memphis, Gasol is scoring 2.4 more PPG, and shooting at 63.2% while playing 2 minutes less a game. Sounds like Gasol is finding his niche on the west coast while helping Lamar Odom find his.

With Pau Gasol in the lineup, Odom is now the Lakers’ third option on offense…Good or bad? Well you saw the Lakers’ ranking atop the western conference, now take a look at Lamar Odom’s Averages over is last 10 games with Gasol:

• PPG: 15.6
• RPG:12.3
• APG: 4.4
• FT%: 65.9
• FG%: 63.2
• 3P%: 58.3

That’s absolutely amazing for a guy of his stature as your third option. Who knew Gasol would help Lamar Odom flourish? Don’t answer that, I’m sure someone called it.