NBA ROCK

 

 

Here’s a quick run-down before the beginning of the 1^st round of what should be the most exciting NBA postseason in recent memory.

 

The West

I recently characterized the Western Conference by the predominance of the Dominant Big men of the elite teams. Just on a topical level, we’ve seen how teams like the Nuggets barely get in and teams like the Warriors don’t even get in. Not so surprisingly, neither team has significant inside presence no matter how much I like Camby and Biedrins. The West will be won in the paint. And we have some intriguing first round matchups that’ll bring that to light.

 

1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. 8 Denver Nuggets

I was hoping for a California series… the Warriors and Lakers play intense playoff basketball every time they meet up and an actual playoff series between them would have been epic. However, the Lakers own the Nuggets (they swept the season series) and with Pau Gasol, they are going to punish the Nuggets in the paint. Of course having the best player in the NBA, Kobe Bryant, doesn’t hurt. The Lakers are possibly the most balanced team in the West and that is even without Andrew Bynum. This series might go to 6 games but it’ll probably be over in 5.

Lakers in 5

 

2 New Orleans Hornets vs. 7 Dallas Mavericks

This is going to be a great matchup. The final game of the season was a preview of sorts and the Mavericks looked good. However, that game was essentially meaningless to the Hornets who were already locked into their spot and the Mavs were still shooting to stay in the 7^th spot. That said, the game was an aberration. The Mavericks have yet to get totally acclimated to Kidd’s presence on the team. It is easy for a casual observer to look at box scores and watch stretches of Maverick games and see that he puts up some decent points, great assist numbers and runs the offense. However, there is still, in spite of their vastly improved play in the last couple of weeks, a certain lack of chemistry that is visible. Against a team like the Hornets who have CP3 who has a full fledged chemistry with his team and two big dominating big guys like David West and Tyson Chandler who can put up points and grab boards, the Hornets have a lot of ways to hurt you… in the short game and the long game. This series will likely go 6 games… but the Hornets will prevail.

Hornets in 6

 

3 San Antonio Spurs vs. 6 Phoenix Suns

Wow; here’s a rematch of a series that turned real ugly last year. We all remember when Steve Nash was bodychecked into the courtside panels by Robert Horry and then the ensuing Technical Fouls and eventual suspension to Amare Stoudemire for walking too far outside of an imaginery boundary. Amidst the crazy west, we have these same two excellent basketball teams back together for a round 1 slugfest. The particulars: The Suns now trot out the Big Cactus and you better believe that he’ll make a significant contribution to the series which was already close last year. The Spurs ultimately have the edge because a) they’re the defending champs and b) have been here a million times in the last decade. The Suns are far better now than they were a year ago, though – Shaq allows them to play two different teams very efficiently. They can slow it down and match Duncan and the Spurs or speed it up and outrun the Spurs if need be. This one is a little harder to call but I’m going to go with the monumental upset. I am not sold on San Antonio this year… they made a nice push in the final months of the season but they’ve looked vulnerable at times and the Suns, outside of the initial acclimation with Shaq, have looked more dangerous and more consistent. This one goes the distance.

Suns in 7

 

4 Houston Rockets vs. 5 Utah Jazz

Home court advantage here is GROSSLY significant. Why? The Jazz are one of the NBA’s best teams when in Salt Lake City… however, outside of Utah, they are no better than the Charlotte Bobcats. Last year’s series went the distance before the Jazz outlasted a Rockets team that couldn’t muster anything outside of T Mac and Yao… a significant difference in this year’s team. The Jazz are almost unbeatable in Utah so Houston will have to take advantage of it’s home court in order to win this series. Remember, last year, the home team won every game except for game 7 when Utah beat the Rockets in Houston. This year, Utah will have to do it again. As much as the 22 game win streak by the Rockets was impressive, the absence of Yao Ming will prove to be costly as the Jazz are ruthless on the boards. Guess what? Repeat.

Jazz in 7

 

 

 

The East

So much is made of the dichotomy between the conferences. However, I’d hope that every team in the West is smartly terrified of playing the Celtics or the Pistons, who not only dominated the shit out of their own conference but also of the West. The Magic are the third best team of the conference before the rest of the field drops off dramatically. Still, that does not go to say that the East playoffs will not be exciting in and of themselves… moving on…

 

1 Boston Celtics vs. 8 Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are young and exciting. Mike Bibby came in and instantly turned this young team into a solid, effective team now that it has veteran playmaking to lead it. However, the ass wooping they’re likely to endure at the hands of the Green Machine is part of the growing pains and will make this Hawks team, as long as they stay together and focused, a much better team next year. Unfortunately for them, this year, they will have to find a way to contend, not only with the scoring of the Big Three but also, with the best Defense in the NBA… role guys like Rondo, Perkins, Big Baby, and Powe make this the best all around team in the NBA. No doubt.

Celtics in 4

 

2 Detroit Pistons vs. 7 Philadelphia 76ers

The Pistons are the second best team in the conference, without any doubts. The Sixers, since the all star break have been nearly the 3^rd best team in the conference so don’t bet on a sweep because Andre Miller has probably been the best PG in the East this season, Andre Iguodala is one of the best scorers in the NBA and the Sixers are exciting and dangerous. Still, the Pistons are the prototype for Postseason consistency and will come out on top in this one. I’m inclined to give Chauncey and company a solid 4 games to 1 prediction but something about Philly tells me they might stretch a second one out at some point in the series.

Pistons in 6

 

3 Orlando Magic vs. 6 Toronto Raptors

The Magic are the third best team in the East and are unlikely to fall to the Raptors who’ll need Bargnani to step it up and play like the 1^st overall pick that they anticipated him to be. As a .500 team, the Raptors are deceptively bound to win as likely as they are bound to lose… a dangerous team. However, the rebounding edge certainly will go to Orlando and usually the team that plays harder on the boards wins. Additionally, Howard, Turkoglu and Lewis are all very good scorers and the team as a whole is deep and well balanced. The Magic are probably going to move on. The question is in how many games. My guess:

Magic in 5

 

4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5 Washington Wizards

Three years in a row now these two run into each other in the 1^st round. King James and co. have had the last laugh the first two times… but this year, a few differences may switch the result. The key difference here is that LeBron has a different supporting cast with Wally Szcerbiak, Ben Wallace and Joe Smith on board instead of Drew Gooden and Larry Hughes. Still, this has always been about LeBron vs. Agent 0 and if that is the case, then the edge definitely goes to King James… on account of him being the far better player and the healthier of the two. Still, Arenas can have a significant influence on the outcome regardless on a team that still stuck around in the playoff race despite not having their star player for the entire season. With a developed supporting cast of Deshawn Stevenson, Nick Young, and Brendan Haywood, the big three of Arenas, Jamison and Butler look a little more dangerous than last year. Still. King James won’t have a first round exit.

Cavs in 7

Did the Cavaliers make a good trade when they got Delonte West, Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, and Wally Szczerbiak? I thought so at first. But after last night’s gut-wrencher against the Bucks, I’m not so sure anymore. Why not? Big Z didn’t play. So the Cleveland offense = Lebron James. Here was their starting lineup:

• PG: Delonte West
• SG: Devin Brown
• SF: Lebron James
• PF: Anderson Varejao
• C: Ben Wallace

Lebron scored 35, Szczerbiak 13, Jones 12, Smith 12, and Devin Brown scored 10. They need someone else to step up and score with Lebron. Well you might say “Wally scored 13!”. Well, Wally also shot 27% (5-18) from the field while scoring those 13. Damon Jones put up a decent amount of points, but he isn’t doing so on a consistent basis. The only consistent players for the Cavs other than Lebron James is Joe Smith and Zydrunas Illgauskas — but Big Z didn’t play.

I understand that if you’re a defense-oriented team, you believe that your defense will lend itself to your offense as Lebron explains — or rather tries to explain in this vid from last year’s playoffs:

But what are you going to do when one of your 3-consistent offensive players doesn’t play? Rely on Lebron to carry your offense? Ok, bad example. But you get my drift. My point is that if the Cavs hope to be successful this year in the playoffs, they need to start praying that everyone gets healthy by crunch time. And that I’m not completely sold on the trade like I was when it first went through. Time will tell.

So the Celtics have been on an absolute tear of late. Their record, as of today, stands at an impressive 41-9. However, we all kind of saw that coming, didn’t we? Nobody should’ve had any doubts about the Big Three in Boston. But would you have predicted that the Detroit Pistons would be trailing Boston by only 4 games, hot off of a tear of their own? How does a 10-game winning streak sound? I can tell you that the Pistons are one of my favorite teams, and I sure as hell didn’t see it coming. If the cards are played right, can we be anticipating an Eastern Conference Finals matchup between the Pistons and the Celtics? If the playoffs were to start today, it would look something like this:

Celtics vs. Sixers:

I love Andre Iguodala, but man the Sixers would get absolutely trampled by the Celtics in this matchup. At least Iggy Pop would be getting some playoff experience, though.

Pistons vs. Nets:

I’ve already shared my thoughts on the Pistons, so I’m not worried about the Pistons being able to pull off a series win against the Nets.

Magic vs. Wizards:

Since we’re pretending the playoffs would be starting today, then both Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas would be injured and therefore the Wizards would only have one major weapon in Antawn Jamison to stand tall against the mighty Magic. This would result in another trample.

Cavs vs. Raptors:

Lebron is developing that killer instinct. I’m not worried about his performance. Though I am worried about the rest of the Cavs. If my inner Miss Cleo serves me correctly, Larry Hughes is going to come out of the gate with a couple of solid performances and then proceed to get injured. So the Cavs are going to need someone else to step up to the plate (as usual) to help Lebron. It’s Booby time now! I’m on the fence with this one.

Hornets vs. Nuggets:

I’m surprised that the Nuggets are the 8th seed right now. I feel that they have more talent than they’re letting on. But not enough to top the Hornets — unless Carmelo Anthony starts to turn it on as if he were Lebron James or Kobe Bryant.

Suns vs. Warriors:

The Warriors upset the living crap out of the Mavericks last year. Can they repeat? Perhaps if they were matched up with the Mavericks again, I’d say probably. But since they’re going head to head with the Suns there’s no chance for the Warriors.

Lakers vs. Mavericks:

If the Mavericks get their trade for Jason Kidd to come through for them, this will be a gooooood series. Hell, it’ll be a good series even if they don’t get Kidd. I feel that both teams would match up very well with each other, even though I feel the Mavericks are under-performing this year. Key players: Dirk & Kobe (obviously). But this year Dirk is going to have to deal with Gasol and vice versa.

Spurs vs. Jazz:

I don’t think the Jazz have enough experience to overcome the Spurs at this point in time. Look for the Spurs to turn it on. You can’t tell me Tony Parker doesn’t want to repeat and get the Finals MVP again with Eva all over him. Though I’m pumped about seeing what Deron Williams is going to do come playoff time.