NBA ROCK

 

 

Here’s a quick run-down before the beginning of the 1^st round of what should be the most exciting NBA postseason in recent memory.

 

The West

I recently characterized the Western Conference by the predominance of the Dominant Big men of the elite teams. Just on a topical level, we’ve seen how teams like the Nuggets barely get in and teams like the Warriors don’t even get in. Not so surprisingly, neither team has significant inside presence no matter how much I like Camby and Biedrins. The West will be won in the paint. And we have some intriguing first round matchups that’ll bring that to light.

 

1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. 8 Denver Nuggets

I was hoping for a California series… the Warriors and Lakers play intense playoff basketball every time they meet up and an actual playoff series between them would have been epic. However, the Lakers own the Nuggets (they swept the season series) and with Pau Gasol, they are going to punish the Nuggets in the paint. Of course having the best player in the NBA, Kobe Bryant, doesn’t hurt. The Lakers are possibly the most balanced team in the West and that is even without Andrew Bynum. This series might go to 6 games but it’ll probably be over in 5.

Lakers in 5

 

2 New Orleans Hornets vs. 7 Dallas Mavericks

This is going to be a great matchup. The final game of the season was a preview of sorts and the Mavericks looked good. However, that game was essentially meaningless to the Hornets who were already locked into their spot and the Mavs were still shooting to stay in the 7^th spot. That said, the game was an aberration. The Mavericks have yet to get totally acclimated to Kidd’s presence on the team. It is easy for a casual observer to look at box scores and watch stretches of Maverick games and see that he puts up some decent points, great assist numbers and runs the offense. However, there is still, in spite of their vastly improved play in the last couple of weeks, a certain lack of chemistry that is visible. Against a team like the Hornets who have CP3 who has a full fledged chemistry with his team and two big dominating big guys like David West and Tyson Chandler who can put up points and grab boards, the Hornets have a lot of ways to hurt you… in the short game and the long game. This series will likely go 6 games… but the Hornets will prevail.

Hornets in 6

 

3 San Antonio Spurs vs. 6 Phoenix Suns

Wow; here’s a rematch of a series that turned real ugly last year. We all remember when Steve Nash was bodychecked into the courtside panels by Robert Horry and then the ensuing Technical Fouls and eventual suspension to Amare Stoudemire for walking too far outside of an imaginery boundary. Amidst the crazy west, we have these same two excellent basketball teams back together for a round 1 slugfest. The particulars: The Suns now trot out the Big Cactus and you better believe that he’ll make a significant contribution to the series which was already close last year. The Spurs ultimately have the edge because a) they’re the defending champs and b) have been here a million times in the last decade. The Suns are far better now than they were a year ago, though – Shaq allows them to play two different teams very efficiently. They can slow it down and match Duncan and the Spurs or speed it up and outrun the Spurs if need be. This one is a little harder to call but I’m going to go with the monumental upset. I am not sold on San Antonio this year… they made a nice push in the final months of the season but they’ve looked vulnerable at times and the Suns, outside of the initial acclimation with Shaq, have looked more dangerous and more consistent. This one goes the distance.

Suns in 7

 

4 Houston Rockets vs. 5 Utah Jazz

Home court advantage here is GROSSLY significant. Why? The Jazz are one of the NBA’s best teams when in Salt Lake City… however, outside of Utah, they are no better than the Charlotte Bobcats. Last year’s series went the distance before the Jazz outlasted a Rockets team that couldn’t muster anything outside of T Mac and Yao… a significant difference in this year’s team. The Jazz are almost unbeatable in Utah so Houston will have to take advantage of it’s home court in order to win this series. Remember, last year, the home team won every game except for game 7 when Utah beat the Rockets in Houston. This year, Utah will have to do it again. As much as the 22 game win streak by the Rockets was impressive, the absence of Yao Ming will prove to be costly as the Jazz are ruthless on the boards. Guess what? Repeat.

Jazz in 7

 

 

 

The East

So much is made of the dichotomy between the conferences. However, I’d hope that every team in the West is smartly terrified of playing the Celtics or the Pistons, who not only dominated the shit out of their own conference but also of the West. The Magic are the third best team of the conference before the rest of the field drops off dramatically. Still, that does not go to say that the East playoffs will not be exciting in and of themselves… moving on…

 

1 Boston Celtics vs. 8 Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are young and exciting. Mike Bibby came in and instantly turned this young team into a solid, effective team now that it has veteran playmaking to lead it. However, the ass wooping they’re likely to endure at the hands of the Green Machine is part of the growing pains and will make this Hawks team, as long as they stay together and focused, a much better team next year. Unfortunately for them, this year, they will have to find a way to contend, not only with the scoring of the Big Three but also, with the best Defense in the NBA… role guys like Rondo, Perkins, Big Baby, and Powe make this the best all around team in the NBA. No doubt.

Celtics in 4

 

2 Detroit Pistons vs. 7 Philadelphia 76ers

The Pistons are the second best team in the conference, without any doubts. The Sixers, since the all star break have been nearly the 3^rd best team in the conference so don’t bet on a sweep because Andre Miller has probably been the best PG in the East this season, Andre Iguodala is one of the best scorers in the NBA and the Sixers are exciting and dangerous. Still, the Pistons are the prototype for Postseason consistency and will come out on top in this one. I’m inclined to give Chauncey and company a solid 4 games to 1 prediction but something about Philly tells me they might stretch a second one out at some point in the series.

Pistons in 6

 

3 Orlando Magic vs. 6 Toronto Raptors

The Magic are the third best team in the East and are unlikely to fall to the Raptors who’ll need Bargnani to step it up and play like the 1^st overall pick that they anticipated him to be. As a .500 team, the Raptors are deceptively bound to win as likely as they are bound to lose… a dangerous team. However, the rebounding edge certainly will go to Orlando and usually the team that plays harder on the boards wins. Additionally, Howard, Turkoglu and Lewis are all very good scorers and the team as a whole is deep and well balanced. The Magic are probably going to move on. The question is in how many games. My guess:

Magic in 5

 

4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5 Washington Wizards

Three years in a row now these two run into each other in the 1^st round. King James and co. have had the last laugh the first two times… but this year, a few differences may switch the result. The key difference here is that LeBron has a different supporting cast with Wally Szcerbiak, Ben Wallace and Joe Smith on board instead of Drew Gooden and Larry Hughes. Still, this has always been about LeBron vs. Agent 0 and if that is the case, then the edge definitely goes to King James… on account of him being the far better player and the healthier of the two. Still, Arenas can have a significant influence on the outcome regardless on a team that still stuck around in the playoff race despite not having their star player for the entire season. With a developed supporting cast of Deshawn Stevenson, Nick Young, and Brendan Haywood, the big three of Arenas, Jamison and Butler look a little more dangerous than last year. Still. King James won’t have a first round exit.

Cavs in 7

Take a look at the top 8 teams in the West:

1. Lakers
2. Spurs
3. Suns
4. Hornets
5. Mavericks
6. Jazz
7. Warriors
8. Nuggets

I had to double-back when I saw that the Lakers were 1st place. Not to take away from the Lakers’ success or anything, but I didn’t think they were that good. It appears there’s some chemistry happening between the Lakers’ big 3 (The Boston who?) in Los Angeles. A chemistry that’s lead the Lakers to an 8-game winning streak.

Kobe Bryant’s is experience a small shift in his numbers since Gasol has arrived. The bad: PPG (down about 2 PPG) and RPG (down about 1.5 RPG). The good: APG (up nearly 1.0 APG) and FT% (up about 4%). Granted Gasol doesn’t directly affect Kobe’s free throw %, I thought it was an interesting stat change.

Despite averaging around one less RPG, and a couple of other drops in averages in L.A. than in Memphis, Gasol is scoring 2.4 more PPG, and shooting at 63.2% while playing 2 minutes less a game. Sounds like Gasol is finding his niche on the west coast while helping Lamar Odom find his.

With Pau Gasol in the lineup, Odom is now the Lakers’ third option on offense…Good or bad? Well you saw the Lakers’ ranking atop the western conference, now take a look at Lamar Odom’s Averages over is last 10 games with Gasol:

• PPG: 15.6
• RPG:12.3
• APG: 4.4
• FT%: 65.9
• FG%: 63.2
• 3P%: 58.3

That’s absolutely amazing for a guy of his stature as your third option. Who knew Gasol would help Lamar Odom flourish? Don’t answer that, I’m sure someone called it.

Whew! That was amazing. I thought for a second that the West’s run in the 4th quarter was going to be the end of the East’s chances of winning the 2008 All-Star game and put my prediction to shame. But then my boy Ray Allen turned it on with three 3-pointers, bringing his game total to five 3-pointers – one shy of the All-Star record of six set by Mark Price.

Allen, puts up the shot…SPLASH! Nothing new.  Like he was going to miss anyway. If it weren’t for Ray Allen’s heroics in the 4th quarter, the East wouldn’t have won. It’s because of this that I’ve decided to dub Ray Allen “The Sniper”. But don’t get me wrong, the game wasn’t all about Ray Allen. If it weren’t for Lebron James’ heroics and killer instinct (yes, I believe he’s slowly getting there — it’s only a matter of time) all game long, the East wouldn’t have won. It was these heroics and killer instinct that bagged Lebron All-Star MVP. He totally deserved the award, too.

I feel bad that Kobe didn’t get to play as much as he should have. But at the same time I’m glad — it’s nice to see the East win after being spanked as if they were a step child last year. Kobe definitely would’ve given the East problems had his pinky been in good shape. It should also be noted that Chris Paul is an absolute killer…because he was killing me during that 9-0 run the West had in the 4th. If the West had come out on top I would’ve put my vote in for Chris Paul as All-Star MVP.

One thing I noticed right off the bat was the chemistry between Jason Kidd and Lebron James. It made the thought of Jason Kidd coming to Cleveland resurface in my mind and got me excited like Kenny Smith during a dunk contest. It was so fun to watch those two run the court together — their games just meshed. Perhaps the Cavs will attempt to swing a deal to bring Jason Kidd to Cleveland given the complications that have arisen in the Nets - Mavericks trade. Cross your fingers! I really think this would give the Cavs a major boost towards getting deep into the playoffs this year. I don’t think they can–nor should they–rely on James putting on the performance he did in game 5. Not that he’s not capable of doing so, but even King James can only do so much.