NBA ROCK

A Breakdown of the NBA Finals

 

So I didn’t even bother with the last round. I made my prediction, I was only half right and because of an unusually testy transition from being an insurance agent to being a journalism student, I never found time to actually explain why I’d be insane enough to have picked the Pistons in 6. Well, that is all water under a bridge somewhere in Michigan because it doesn’t matter - the match-up is set: Lakers vs. Celtics.

I remember the 3^rd phase of the rivalry… I was a very young child, obviously, but my dad was a huge Lakers fan (he was more or less a big supporter of Kareem for obvious reasons) and as a result I was definitely on the Laker side of the Magic vs. Bird chapter of things… back when it was still hot stuff. I mean, aside from having spanned three different eras of Basketball, the rivalry was so fundamentally grafted to the sport, that when EA sports first released an officially licensed basketball game, it was, unsurprisingly called Lakers vs. Celtics. I owned the game and played it practically day and night. I cultivated my understanding and love for the game of basketball watching these two teams play.

Let’s not be coy; everybody, David Stern especially, wanted this match-up in the finals. The NBA needed this PR move more than anything to save a sport mired in delinquency and scandal. This was probably the most exciting NBA season in some time and the playoffs served the league well by being both competitive, unpredictable at times and definitely engaging… as the two polar worlds of Boston and LA moved closer and closer together, a buzz building into an eventual hum as you’d expect it to.

So who’s to win this; the Celtics who amassed the best record during the regular season or the Lakers who practically stole Pau Gasol from the Grizzlies and shot up the rankings to the top spot in the West? The Lakers are the heavy favorites around the sports world and while I also think they’ll win the championship, I’m not so certain that it’s as much of a lock as everyone makes it seem.

The first glaring matter at hand is that of the road to the finals, itself. The Celtics have literally played in two game 7s and barely escaped playing a third when they were able to come back from behind against the Pistons late in the 4^th quarter at Auburn Hills. The Lakers on the other hand, outside of a couple of back-to-back losses to the best home team in the NBA (and maybe all of sports) in Utah, have handily dispersed everybody they’ve met. And we all know that common thought puts the eastern conference on a lower platform than the West so what gives?

Basketball, like all sports, is a match-ups sort of sport as much as it is anything else: in other words just as much as Atlanta was able to take Boston to 7 because of the way their run n gun style and home court play facilitated that, Detroit, a better team, could not make it past game 6. However, both Detroit and Atlanta were balanced teams… Cleveland was not. The Cavs were a team that ran their entire offense through Lebron and that is ultimately where the Celtics focused their attentions as Lebron’s supporting cast sometimes helped him out and more often, did not. Still, the Celtics played a smart team defense on Lebron James, forced him to either force shots or go to other guys and those other guys ultimately failed and the Celtics moved on.

Now they face Kobe and his supporting cast which is a lot better than Lebron’s was and Kobe, himself, is also better than Lebron is. This would spell doom for the Celtics if it weren’t for the fact that they’ve certainly found their groove in the past series as they’ve looked like a much, much better team than they had in the first two rounds. They are playing considerably better defense (remember they were the best ranked defense in the league during the season) and Ray Allen has finally found his scoring touch and as long as Perkins, Rondo and Posey do their thing in assistance to the big Three, they can now play like the Celtics team that beat the Lakers twice during the regular season.

I also think this series will go the distance only because it needs to. The Celtics have not come this far (and KG would never let this happen, by the way) just to be manhandled by the other half of this legendary rivalry. Remember that the Big Three are, all, All-stars. Outside of Kobe, no other Laker is and while Pau Gasol has been an All-star before, he is not KG. Lamar Odom can sometimes perform like an All-Star but most of the time is content being a cog in the system rather than the engine. The Celtics have three potential engines.

You better believe they’re showing up.

The nuts and bolts:

The two major areas of question will be how the Celtics defend Kobe and how the Lakers defend KG. As frontcourts go, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom are certainly long and able to clog the middle up pretty well. That might serve them better in defending the Celtics backcourt rather than their frontcourt as Rajon Rondo, Terry Allen and Sam Cassell will find breathing difficult to attain. As for stopping KG, I’m not sure Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol are energetic enough to do it consistently. Especially with a slashing Paul Pierce, added to the mix. This is when Laker fans collectively miss Andrew Bynum because the defensive intensity of the bigs is actually quite questionable and the only reason they were able to get by the Spurs with relative ease was in taking advantage of the age difference. The Celtics are a lot more active than the Spurs and with Perkins, Powe and Big Baby, have some formidable inside guys.

Still, the reason the Lakers have succeeded this post season is in part due to their team defense and the tenacious defense of their backcourt. Look for Trevor Ariza to get more playing time this series as the goal for the Lakers will be to keep Pierce and KG as far from the bucket as possible. Good lateral defenders like Ariza will be key to doing this as Fisher and Kobe are amongst the very best. As for backcourt scoring, the Lakers have the definite edge with the model of consistency in both Fisher and Bryant. This might be where the likes of Rondo are exposed, leaving a majority of the load, again, on the Big Three.

The bottom line in this series is going to be how the Celtics execute their team defense on Kobe. The advantage Kobe has over Lebron is in his supporting cast and I think the Celtics are soon going to find that out.

I wish I still had my Sega Genesis. I’d pop Lakers v. Celtics in and rip out a few ol school James Worthy moves in the lane. This series, as it starts on Thursday, will surely bring back a few memories for some of us who recall this rivalry in its younger stages… the beauty of it being that more than one generation will be able recognize the match-up. That is why this NBA Finals will be more special than, probably, any match- up in a decade.

Yes.

Lakers in 7

 

 

Here’s a quick run-down before the beginning of the 1^st round of what should be the most exciting NBA postseason in recent memory.

 

The West

I recently characterized the Western Conference by the predominance of the Dominant Big men of the elite teams. Just on a topical level, we’ve seen how teams like the Nuggets barely get in and teams like the Warriors don’t even get in. Not so surprisingly, neither team has significant inside presence no matter how much I like Camby and Biedrins. The West will be won in the paint. And we have some intriguing first round matchups that’ll bring that to light.

 

1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. 8 Denver Nuggets

I was hoping for a California series… the Warriors and Lakers play intense playoff basketball every time they meet up and an actual playoff series between them would have been epic. However, the Lakers own the Nuggets (they swept the season series) and with Pau Gasol, they are going to punish the Nuggets in the paint. Of course having the best player in the NBA, Kobe Bryant, doesn’t hurt. The Lakers are possibly the most balanced team in the West and that is even without Andrew Bynum. This series might go to 6 games but it’ll probably be over in 5.

Lakers in 5

 

2 New Orleans Hornets vs. 7 Dallas Mavericks

This is going to be a great matchup. The final game of the season was a preview of sorts and the Mavericks looked good. However, that game was essentially meaningless to the Hornets who were already locked into their spot and the Mavs were still shooting to stay in the 7^th spot. That said, the game was an aberration. The Mavericks have yet to get totally acclimated to Kidd’s presence on the team. It is easy for a casual observer to look at box scores and watch stretches of Maverick games and see that he puts up some decent points, great assist numbers and runs the offense. However, there is still, in spite of their vastly improved play in the last couple of weeks, a certain lack of chemistry that is visible. Against a team like the Hornets who have CP3 who has a full fledged chemistry with his team and two big dominating big guys like David West and Tyson Chandler who can put up points and grab boards, the Hornets have a lot of ways to hurt you… in the short game and the long game. This series will likely go 6 games… but the Hornets will prevail.

Hornets in 6

 

3 San Antonio Spurs vs. 6 Phoenix Suns

Wow; here’s a rematch of a series that turned real ugly last year. We all remember when Steve Nash was bodychecked into the courtside panels by Robert Horry and then the ensuing Technical Fouls and eventual suspension to Amare Stoudemire for walking too far outside of an imaginery boundary. Amidst the crazy west, we have these same two excellent basketball teams back together for a round 1 slugfest. The particulars: The Suns now trot out the Big Cactus and you better believe that he’ll make a significant contribution to the series which was already close last year. The Spurs ultimately have the edge because a) they’re the defending champs and b) have been here a million times in the last decade. The Suns are far better now than they were a year ago, though – Shaq allows them to play two different teams very efficiently. They can slow it down and match Duncan and the Spurs or speed it up and outrun the Spurs if need be. This one is a little harder to call but I’m going to go with the monumental upset. I am not sold on San Antonio this year… they made a nice push in the final months of the season but they’ve looked vulnerable at times and the Suns, outside of the initial acclimation with Shaq, have looked more dangerous and more consistent. This one goes the distance.

Suns in 7

 

4 Houston Rockets vs. 5 Utah Jazz

Home court advantage here is GROSSLY significant. Why? The Jazz are one of the NBA’s best teams when in Salt Lake City… however, outside of Utah, they are no better than the Charlotte Bobcats. Last year’s series went the distance before the Jazz outlasted a Rockets team that couldn’t muster anything outside of T Mac and Yao… a significant difference in this year’s team. The Jazz are almost unbeatable in Utah so Houston will have to take advantage of it’s home court in order to win this series. Remember, last year, the home team won every game except for game 7 when Utah beat the Rockets in Houston. This year, Utah will have to do it again. As much as the 22 game win streak by the Rockets was impressive, the absence of Yao Ming will prove to be costly as the Jazz are ruthless on the boards. Guess what? Repeat.

Jazz in 7

 

 

 

The East

So much is made of the dichotomy between the conferences. However, I’d hope that every team in the West is smartly terrified of playing the Celtics or the Pistons, who not only dominated the shit out of their own conference but also of the West. The Magic are the third best team of the conference before the rest of the field drops off dramatically. Still, that does not go to say that the East playoffs will not be exciting in and of themselves… moving on…

 

1 Boston Celtics vs. 8 Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are young and exciting. Mike Bibby came in and instantly turned this young team into a solid, effective team now that it has veteran playmaking to lead it. However, the ass wooping they’re likely to endure at the hands of the Green Machine is part of the growing pains and will make this Hawks team, as long as they stay together and focused, a much better team next year. Unfortunately for them, this year, they will have to find a way to contend, not only with the scoring of the Big Three but also, with the best Defense in the NBA… role guys like Rondo, Perkins, Big Baby, and Powe make this the best all around team in the NBA. No doubt.

Celtics in 4

 

2 Detroit Pistons vs. 7 Philadelphia 76ers

The Pistons are the second best team in the conference, without any doubts. The Sixers, since the all star break have been nearly the 3^rd best team in the conference so don’t bet on a sweep because Andre Miller has probably been the best PG in the East this season, Andre Iguodala is one of the best scorers in the NBA and the Sixers are exciting and dangerous. Still, the Pistons are the prototype for Postseason consistency and will come out on top in this one. I’m inclined to give Chauncey and company a solid 4 games to 1 prediction but something about Philly tells me they might stretch a second one out at some point in the series.

Pistons in 6

 

3 Orlando Magic vs. 6 Toronto Raptors

The Magic are the third best team in the East and are unlikely to fall to the Raptors who’ll need Bargnani to step it up and play like the 1^st overall pick that they anticipated him to be. As a .500 team, the Raptors are deceptively bound to win as likely as they are bound to lose… a dangerous team. However, the rebounding edge certainly will go to Orlando and usually the team that plays harder on the boards wins. Additionally, Howard, Turkoglu and Lewis are all very good scorers and the team as a whole is deep and well balanced. The Magic are probably going to move on. The question is in how many games. My guess:

Magic in 5

 

4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5 Washington Wizards

Three years in a row now these two run into each other in the 1^st round. King James and co. have had the last laugh the first two times… but this year, a few differences may switch the result. The key difference here is that LeBron has a different supporting cast with Wally Szcerbiak, Ben Wallace and Joe Smith on board instead of Drew Gooden and Larry Hughes. Still, this has always been about LeBron vs. Agent 0 and if that is the case, then the edge definitely goes to King James… on account of him being the far better player and the healthier of the two. Still, Arenas can have a significant influence on the outcome regardless on a team that still stuck around in the playoff race despite not having their star player for the entire season. With a developed supporting cast of Deshawn Stevenson, Nick Young, and Brendan Haywood, the big three of Arenas, Jamison and Butler look a little more dangerous than last year. Still. King James won’t have a first round exit.

Cavs in 7