NBA ROCK

A Breakdown of the NBA Finals

 

So I didn’t even bother with the last round. I made my prediction, I was only half right and because of an unusually testy transition from being an insurance agent to being a journalism student, I never found time to actually explain why I’d be insane enough to have picked the Pistons in 6. Well, that is all water under a bridge somewhere in Michigan because it doesn’t matter - the match-up is set: Lakers vs. Celtics.

I remember the 3^rd phase of the rivalry… I was a very young child, obviously, but my dad was a huge Lakers fan (he was more or less a big supporter of Kareem for obvious reasons) and as a result I was definitely on the Laker side of the Magic vs. Bird chapter of things… back when it was still hot stuff. I mean, aside from having spanned three different eras of Basketball, the rivalry was so fundamentally grafted to the sport, that when EA sports first released an officially licensed basketball game, it was, unsurprisingly called Lakers vs. Celtics. I owned the game and played it practically day and night. I cultivated my understanding and love for the game of basketball watching these two teams play.

Let’s not be coy; everybody, David Stern especially, wanted this match-up in the finals. The NBA needed this PR move more than anything to save a sport mired in delinquency and scandal. This was probably the most exciting NBA season in some time and the playoffs served the league well by being both competitive, unpredictable at times and definitely engaging… as the two polar worlds of Boston and LA moved closer and closer together, a buzz building into an eventual hum as you’d expect it to.

So who’s to win this; the Celtics who amassed the best record during the regular season or the Lakers who practically stole Pau Gasol from the Grizzlies and shot up the rankings to the top spot in the West? The Lakers are the heavy favorites around the sports world and while I also think they’ll win the championship, I’m not so certain that it’s as much of a lock as everyone makes it seem.

The first glaring matter at hand is that of the road to the finals, itself. The Celtics have literally played in two game 7s and barely escaped playing a third when they were able to come back from behind against the Pistons late in the 4^th quarter at Auburn Hills. The Lakers on the other hand, outside of a couple of back-to-back losses to the best home team in the NBA (and maybe all of sports) in Utah, have handily dispersed everybody they’ve met. And we all know that common thought puts the eastern conference on a lower platform than the West so what gives?

Basketball, like all sports, is a match-ups sort of sport as much as it is anything else: in other words just as much as Atlanta was able to take Boston to 7 because of the way their run n gun style and home court play facilitated that, Detroit, a better team, could not make it past game 6. However, both Detroit and Atlanta were balanced teams… Cleveland was not. The Cavs were a team that ran their entire offense through Lebron and that is ultimately where the Celtics focused their attentions as Lebron’s supporting cast sometimes helped him out and more often, did not. Still, the Celtics played a smart team defense on Lebron James, forced him to either force shots or go to other guys and those other guys ultimately failed and the Celtics moved on.

Now they face Kobe and his supporting cast which is a lot better than Lebron’s was and Kobe, himself, is also better than Lebron is. This would spell doom for the Celtics if it weren’t for the fact that they’ve certainly found their groove in the past series as they’ve looked like a much, much better team than they had in the first two rounds. They are playing considerably better defense (remember they were the best ranked defense in the league during the season) and Ray Allen has finally found his scoring touch and as long as Perkins, Rondo and Posey do their thing in assistance to the big Three, they can now play like the Celtics team that beat the Lakers twice during the regular season.

I also think this series will go the distance only because it needs to. The Celtics have not come this far (and KG would never let this happen, by the way) just to be manhandled by the other half of this legendary rivalry. Remember that the Big Three are, all, All-stars. Outside of Kobe, no other Laker is and while Pau Gasol has been an All-star before, he is not KG. Lamar Odom can sometimes perform like an All-Star but most of the time is content being a cog in the system rather than the engine. The Celtics have three potential engines.

You better believe they’re showing up.

The nuts and bolts:

The two major areas of question will be how the Celtics defend Kobe and how the Lakers defend KG. As frontcourts go, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom are certainly long and able to clog the middle up pretty well. That might serve them better in defending the Celtics backcourt rather than their frontcourt as Rajon Rondo, Terry Allen and Sam Cassell will find breathing difficult to attain. As for stopping KG, I’m not sure Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol are energetic enough to do it consistently. Especially with a slashing Paul Pierce, added to the mix. This is when Laker fans collectively miss Andrew Bynum because the defensive intensity of the bigs is actually quite questionable and the only reason they were able to get by the Spurs with relative ease was in taking advantage of the age difference. The Celtics are a lot more active than the Spurs and with Perkins, Powe and Big Baby, have some formidable inside guys.

Still, the reason the Lakers have succeeded this post season is in part due to their team defense and the tenacious defense of their backcourt. Look for Trevor Ariza to get more playing time this series as the goal for the Lakers will be to keep Pierce and KG as far from the bucket as possible. Good lateral defenders like Ariza will be key to doing this as Fisher and Kobe are amongst the very best. As for backcourt scoring, the Lakers have the definite edge with the model of consistency in both Fisher and Bryant. This might be where the likes of Rondo are exposed, leaving a majority of the load, again, on the Big Three.

The bottom line in this series is going to be how the Celtics execute their team defense on Kobe. The advantage Kobe has over Lebron is in his supporting cast and I think the Celtics are soon going to find that out.

I wish I still had my Sega Genesis. I’d pop Lakers v. Celtics in and rip out a few ol school James Worthy moves in the lane. This series, as it starts on Thursday, will surely bring back a few memories for some of us who recall this rivalry in its younger stages… the beauty of it being that more than one generation will be able recognize the match-up. That is why this NBA Finals will be more special than, probably, any match- up in a decade.

Yes.

Lakers in 7

Yeah, I know - where’ve you been, Waleed?

 

The reality of these NBA playoffs is that they started the 2nd round before the end of the 1st round and I simply didn’t anticipate it. Anyways, so far the teams we knew would win, have and it didn’t matter that some of them had it easy getting to the next round and others had to bite tooth and nail to get there. In the end, and the only mentality allowed, is that they’re there… and it’s time to get back to work.

 

That means me, too.

 

Moving on. Round 2. Fight.

 

 

Eastern Conference

1 Boston Celtics vs. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers

There’s no question that the Celtics ought to be fortunate for their first round lessons. On one hand, they were clearly the best team in the East this season and in a lot of ways, the best team in the entire league, as well. But I, like everybody else, overlooked their weaknesses and the fact they didn’t win a single game away from Boston is a cause for concern because while the Hawks played their hearts out and are a very talented young team, the Cavs are considerably tougher and unlike the Hawks, the Cavs have a guy like Lebron… who can murder the Celtics single handedly. The Green Machine will have to do a much better job on the road if they hope to win this series because, again, unlike the Hawks, the Cavs can win on the road and obviously are gonna have to do that at least once to move on. I still don’t really like Lebron’s supporting cast so much but Wally showed some great shooting the other day and Gibson looks to have gotten back on track, Ben Wallace has quietly had a solid defensive postseason and you just never know with a team that was just representing the Eastern Conference a year ago. Still, I think the Celtics have learned an important lesson from the Hawks… by overlooking the Hawks, they didn’t notice that every team in the NBA can win on any given night if they get hot and the Cavs certainly can do that; look for the Celtics to shore up their defensive holes on the road and stay strong in the face of the Cleveland crowd cheering their team on. I like the Cavs a lot and I think Lebron is the best player not name Kobe in the world but it may not be enough if the Celtics stay focused… if the Celtics fumble their composure, the Cavs will make them pay in ways the Hawks could not.

This one’s going the distance

Celtics in 7

 

 

2 Detroit Pistons vs. 3 Orlando Magic

Now that was a scare for all of about two games when the Pistons, as usual, played flat, uninspired, sloppy basketball out of arrogance, let Philly into the picture, gave them false hope and then crushed them relentlessly for the final two games to leave no doubt: the 2 seed was moving on. The problem with Detroit will always be the potential for this sort of thing to happen… sure they’re seasoned playoff veterans and a core group that has been together through some memorable playoff runs but you can’t just turn it on and off and while it worked against Philly, it will not work against Orlando and certainly not against whomever they see moving forward assuming they do… move forward. In their way will be an Orlando Magic team that is a lot more dangerous now that they’ve accumulated the confidence of getting past Toronto in the first round and getting a decent amount of rest. Dwight Howard is drawing comparisons to Wilt and young Shaq and that can’t be a good thing for the Pistons who don’t score as much as Orlando nor do they Rebound the ball as well as Orlando. Howard alone averages something like 18 boards a game in the playoffs right now and Rasheed Wallace currently leads the Pistons with 6 and a half a game.The only two factors going against Orlando, obviously, will be their lack of playoff experience and their mediocore defense…. Something Detroit is dominant in. The Magic’s big three, Howard, Turkoglu (most improved player of the year), Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson are all very good players and will all have to be so against the Piston core of Billups, Rip Hamilton, Wallace and Tayshaun Prince.

 

The bottom line will be playoff grit. The Magic can beat anybody in the East on any given night… they certainly have the talent to do so. However, the Pistons have been here many times, before. The real question is whether that cocky, assumptive play sneaks back into the Pistons and they allow the Magic do take advantage. If the Pistons stay on point, the Magic will be pressed to overcome. Chauncey Billups, as the point guard and the court general, needs to stay hungry and stay sharp (and he’s the one most guilty of getting complacent) in order for the Pistons to move on. Otherwise the defense, the experience and the skill will be enough.

Pistons outright swept the Magic in 4 last postseason and while I think the Magic will get at least one game this year, they will not be moving on. I like the Magic, don’t get me wrong… I think that the combination of Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu is a fine crew but the Pistons seem to have finally flipped the switch (hahah they swear there isn’t one) and are finally playing Piston Basketball. What we saw in Game 1 is what we should expect from here on out… some of these games will be tight but Detroit’s Defense is always going to have the final word when all is said and done. It isn’t going to be a sweep like last year’s series but this one won’t go past 6.

Pistons in 6

 

Western Conference

1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. 4 Utah Jazz

Well, I’ve never really been a Laker fan. I liked the Lakers when I was young because I thought the world of Magic Johnson and my Dad was a huge Kareem Abdul Jabbar fan but I was one of those BEAT LA types during the Bulls rise to power (I loved one MJ more than the other, though haha) and then eventually again during the Kings’ failed run at a championship. However, it is exceedingly difficult as a denizen of southern California and a fan of good NBA basketball to ignore the fact that the Lakers are a great team. Plus, I’m a Warriors fan and I like to keep my loyalties, at least, within the state of California… and now, apparently Kobe Bryant is about to win his first MVP award (it really is about time…). The Lakers already jumped on the Jazz, 1-love, and it’s only going to get worse for Utah who, while a very solid and talented Sloan-coached team, can not and probably will not contend with the Lakers. Kobe dropped 24 in the 1^st half to push the Jazz into the hardwood and then actually took his foot off the gas pedal and fed his team in the 2^nd half en route to a solid, comfortable 11 point victory. I say that there’ll be more of the same to come. The maddening part of this for the Jazz will be how relentless the Lakers are going to be on the scoring end… even if you were to put somebody on Kobe, you’re leaving a bunch of pretty decent players open to kill you. The problem for Utah is that they don’t have a guy for Kobe… The Nuggets hoped Kenyon Martin could be the guy and that didn’t prove to do anything and now the Jazz, despite a great defensive team overall, can’t hope that Kirilenko or Brewer or Williams can effectively contain the explosive and saavy Kobe. On the other end of the court, the pick n roll that Utah abused Houston with is borderline punchless against Phil Jackson. The one area where Utah will abuse the Lakers is on the glass where the Jazz are a better rebounding team as seen when Mehmet Okur nearly nabbed 20 boards to go with his 21 points on Sunday. The Jazz, between Okur, Kirilenko and Boozer, can grab enough offensive rebounds to get plenty of second chance points. That is ultimately where the Jazz can turn the tide on the Lakers but that is, still, a slim chance. Don’t mean to sound like I’m gushing on the Lakers because the Jazz are still a great team and are going to still give the Lakers some trouble… if they can turn the tide and keep Kobe in check (not likely), they can ride momentum into the next round.

However, it is pretty unlikely…

Lakers in 6

 

2 New Orleans Hornets vs. 3 San Antonio Spurs

Cp3 vs. Tony Parker. That, there, will be the matchup to watch. The Hornets handled the Mavs with great ease, for the most part, as a result of Chris Paul’s amazing play in the 1^st round. In fact, Cp3 put up some pretty gaudy stats and set some nutty records in putting up 30 points and 15 assists in both of his FIRST playoff games of his career. When the Mavs won a game, they did so because they contained him and he performed poorly. Then he came back in the clincher and spent two halves running a clinic on the terribly run Mavericks (basketball is won a the point… trading Devin Harris for Jason Kidd was a horrible mistake at this point) by distributing the ball well in the 1^st half getting everybody else involved and then going off in the 2^nd half en route to a monster stat line. On the flipside of the matchup, you’ve got Tony Parker who is as lightning quick and just as capable of taking his Team for a ride. However, we’re talking about two completely different types of point guards. For one, Tony Parker does not pass first while Cp3 is a more traditional playmaker. Cp3’s jumpshot is going to cause problems for Tony Parker but Parker’s shot won’t scare cp3 at all. While Parker has Duncan in the post, Cp3 has a couple of options in David West and Tyson Chandler giving an inside edge to the Hornets on the scoring end. On the defensive end, Kurt Thomas is a great low post defender and the stable of big men they got down there in San Antonio with Oberto and Elson and Horry should be enough to consistently throw big bodies at the big Hornets. The Hornets handled the Mavs and the Spurs handled the Suns. The Suns series kinda threw me off the same way that it threw a lot of others off. We were expecting that Shaq trade to give the Suns more inside grit and more options in lineup tinkering but what it accomplished instead was that it allowed a pick n roll system like San Antonio’s to expose Nash for the lackluster defender that he is and Shaq for the old, 360 pound man that he is. This will not work against the Hornets and coach pop knows that, of course. The Suns are a disaster and a team that is headed for some serious offseason changes… the trade was clearing a last ditch effort to save a franchise that has been good but not good enough for the past half a decade. The hornets are not that team. They were, for most of the season, the top team in the West and throw everybody from Paul to West to Peja to Pargo to Bonzi at you and are well coached by Byron Scott and play solid basketball. This will be a great series and I am telling you right now…

 

This one is going to the Hornets. The turnaround in New Orleans is clearly as a result of CP3’s great play but this is the team to beat in the West. The Next round will be Lakers and Hornets and will be fun as hell to watch.The Hornets really are the team to beat in this series and unless Tim Duncan gets untracked and Tony Parker manages to find ways to keep up with CP3, the Hornets behind the strong play of Paul, West, and Peja will move on to face the Lakers in the next round.

Hornets in 6

 

 

Here’s a quick run-down before the beginning of the 1^st round of what should be the most exciting NBA postseason in recent memory.

 

The West

I recently characterized the Western Conference by the predominance of the Dominant Big men of the elite teams. Just on a topical level, we’ve seen how teams like the Nuggets barely get in and teams like the Warriors don’t even get in. Not so surprisingly, neither team has significant inside presence no matter how much I like Camby and Biedrins. The West will be won in the paint. And we have some intriguing first round matchups that’ll bring that to light.

 

1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. 8 Denver Nuggets

I was hoping for a California series… the Warriors and Lakers play intense playoff basketball every time they meet up and an actual playoff series between them would have been epic. However, the Lakers own the Nuggets (they swept the season series) and with Pau Gasol, they are going to punish the Nuggets in the paint. Of course having the best player in the NBA, Kobe Bryant, doesn’t hurt. The Lakers are possibly the most balanced team in the West and that is even without Andrew Bynum. This series might go to 6 games but it’ll probably be over in 5.

Lakers in 5

 

2 New Orleans Hornets vs. 7 Dallas Mavericks

This is going to be a great matchup. The final game of the season was a preview of sorts and the Mavericks looked good. However, that game was essentially meaningless to the Hornets who were already locked into their spot and the Mavs were still shooting to stay in the 7^th spot. That said, the game was an aberration. The Mavericks have yet to get totally acclimated to Kidd’s presence on the team. It is easy for a casual observer to look at box scores and watch stretches of Maverick games and see that he puts up some decent points, great assist numbers and runs the offense. However, there is still, in spite of their vastly improved play in the last couple of weeks, a certain lack of chemistry that is visible. Against a team like the Hornets who have CP3 who has a full fledged chemistry with his team and two big dominating big guys like David West and Tyson Chandler who can put up points and grab boards, the Hornets have a lot of ways to hurt you… in the short game and the long game. This series will likely go 6 games… but the Hornets will prevail.

Hornets in 6

 

3 San Antonio Spurs vs. 6 Phoenix Suns

Wow; here’s a rematch of a series that turned real ugly last year. We all remember when Steve Nash was bodychecked into the courtside panels by Robert Horry and then the ensuing Technical Fouls and eventual suspension to Amare Stoudemire for walking too far outside of an imaginery boundary. Amidst the crazy west, we have these same two excellent basketball teams back together for a round 1 slugfest. The particulars: The Suns now trot out the Big Cactus and you better believe that he’ll make a significant contribution to the series which was already close last year. The Spurs ultimately have the edge because a) they’re the defending champs and b) have been here a million times in the last decade. The Suns are far better now than they were a year ago, though – Shaq allows them to play two different teams very efficiently. They can slow it down and match Duncan and the Spurs or speed it up and outrun the Spurs if need be. This one is a little harder to call but I’m going to go with the monumental upset. I am not sold on San Antonio this year… they made a nice push in the final months of the season but they’ve looked vulnerable at times and the Suns, outside of the initial acclimation with Shaq, have looked more dangerous and more consistent. This one goes the distance.

Suns in 7

 

4 Houston Rockets vs. 5 Utah Jazz

Home court advantage here is GROSSLY significant. Why? The Jazz are one of the NBA’s best teams when in Salt Lake City… however, outside of Utah, they are no better than the Charlotte Bobcats. Last year’s series went the distance before the Jazz outlasted a Rockets team that couldn’t muster anything outside of T Mac and Yao… a significant difference in this year’s team. The Jazz are almost unbeatable in Utah so Houston will have to take advantage of it’s home court in order to win this series. Remember, last year, the home team won every game except for game 7 when Utah beat the Rockets in Houston. This year, Utah will have to do it again. As much as the 22 game win streak by the Rockets was impressive, the absence of Yao Ming will prove to be costly as the Jazz are ruthless on the boards. Guess what? Repeat.

Jazz in 7

 

 

 

The East

So much is made of the dichotomy between the conferences. However, I’d hope that every team in the West is smartly terrified of playing the Celtics or the Pistons, who not only dominated the shit out of their own conference but also of the West. The Magic are the third best team of the conference before the rest of the field drops off dramatically. Still, that does not go to say that the East playoffs will not be exciting in and of themselves… moving on…

 

1 Boston Celtics vs. 8 Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are young and exciting. Mike Bibby came in and instantly turned this young team into a solid, effective team now that it has veteran playmaking to lead it. However, the ass wooping they’re likely to endure at the hands of the Green Machine is part of the growing pains and will make this Hawks team, as long as they stay together and focused, a much better team next year. Unfortunately for them, this year, they will have to find a way to contend, not only with the scoring of the Big Three but also, with the best Defense in the NBA… role guys like Rondo, Perkins, Big Baby, and Powe make this the best all around team in the NBA. No doubt.

Celtics in 4

 

2 Detroit Pistons vs. 7 Philadelphia 76ers

The Pistons are the second best team in the conference, without any doubts. The Sixers, since the all star break have been nearly the 3^rd best team in the conference so don’t bet on a sweep because Andre Miller has probably been the best PG in the East this season, Andre Iguodala is one of the best scorers in the NBA and the Sixers are exciting and dangerous. Still, the Pistons are the prototype for Postseason consistency and will come out on top in this one. I’m inclined to give Chauncey and company a solid 4 games to 1 prediction but something about Philly tells me they might stretch a second one out at some point in the series.

Pistons in 6

 

3 Orlando Magic vs. 6 Toronto Raptors

The Magic are the third best team in the East and are unlikely to fall to the Raptors who’ll need Bargnani to step it up and play like the 1^st overall pick that they anticipated him to be. As a .500 team, the Raptors are deceptively bound to win as likely as they are bound to lose… a dangerous team. However, the rebounding edge certainly will go to Orlando and usually the team that plays harder on the boards wins. Additionally, Howard, Turkoglu and Lewis are all very good scorers and the team as a whole is deep and well balanced. The Magic are probably going to move on. The question is in how many games. My guess:

Magic in 5

 

4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5 Washington Wizards

Three years in a row now these two run into each other in the 1^st round. King James and co. have had the last laugh the first two times… but this year, a few differences may switch the result. The key difference here is that LeBron has a different supporting cast with Wally Szcerbiak, Ben Wallace and Joe Smith on board instead of Drew Gooden and Larry Hughes. Still, this has always been about LeBron vs. Agent 0 and if that is the case, then the edge definitely goes to King James… on account of him being the far better player and the healthier of the two. Still, Arenas can have a significant influence on the outcome regardless on a team that still stuck around in the playoff race despite not having their star player for the entire season. With a developed supporting cast of Deshawn Stevenson, Nick Young, and Brendan Haywood, the big three of Arenas, Jamison and Butler look a little more dangerous than last year. Still. King James won’t have a first round exit.

Cavs in 7